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December 2017: Alternatives in place of the canceled LA trip

Cromwell

This month, we will hopefully be going to Cromwell (Hartford) Connecticut to see family FRIRNDS, from December 23 to December 25. That has a 95% chance of happening & the trend has stayed at 95% for the past week.
According to the chart you see above, it is a near given that we will be going to Cromwell on December 23rd. In fact, if the trend continues to stay at 95% until December 15, you will begin getting blog post updates on Cromwell very frequently, at random, between December 15 & December 23rd. They will mostly include charts about the probability trend (at that time, it will be projected to max out at 99 percent. The reason why it will NEVER EVER be 100 percent is because things could happen on the fly, greatly affecting the probability of us going, or putting it on the JTD (Journey to decimation). However, if we do make reservations for a hotel WITHIN 2 DAYS we scheduled the reservation for, this makes the probability jump to 100 percent!

As far as lift filming goes for Cromwell, my plans for lift filming will hopefully include the Courtyard by Marriott in Cromwell, since the hotel has two very nice Otis lifts (both hydraulic).

 

Also, with that in mind, I hope to visit downtown Hartford to film some of the higher rising lifts (one of them is the Marriott Hartford Downtown which has some efficient OTIS Elevonic 411 lifts). That's not a certainty though, as I do anticipate a side-trend of us NOT spending any time in downtown Hartford over the course of our two days in Cromwell.

Los Angeles was originally on the agenda books for these days, but now it has been completely scrapped off (the verdict was disappointing). However, I will use whatever I film in Cromwell to make up for the potential losses of LA EleFilms.

Pittsburgh

This month, we have a maximum 33% probability of going to Pittsburgh, hopefully for one night from December 29 to December 30. The reason there is a maximum of 33% is because, before the LA trip probability trends were placed on the chopping block, we have statistically arranged the likelihood of us going to Pittsburgh to be one-third as likely as us going to Los Angeles. As you could clearly see, that is no longer the case & as of right now, the probability of us going to Pittsburgh is staying at 33 percent UNTIL reservations for hotels are made & I receive word of it. You could expect the probability to skyrocket to 100 percent if reservations for the hotels are made.

So basically, what we have in place for this month are two brand new probability trend experiments, which will be carefully monitored over the next several days. By using PT experiments which have failed in the past, we will be able to deliver more accurate, on-point, descriptive, detailed blog posts on what to hope for months or even years down the road from the next blog post. Of course, they will be nowhere near 100% accurate, but they will allow you to start formulating ideas of what to expect IF they were to happen.

What to understand about probability trends

Probability trends are visually displayed to blog viewers in basic line-graphs. These line-graphs are extremely precise, because the direction & gradient of the change between 2 points gives you ideas of what to expect for a possible verdict. These types of trends are affected by four main factors:
  • The frequency of discussions about ideas for the trip
  • The content of discussions
  • Our interest in going over time
  • A general likelihood
I use these factors to aid me in creating the most accurate statistical models I could create.

Basic trend rules

  • Golden rule: To spot a verdict ahead of time, sum up the y-values of all the points within a given graph & divide the sum by the number of points on the given graph.
    • If the average turns out to be above 50, there's a good likelihood we are going on the discussed trip.
    • If the average turns out to be below 50, there's a BAD likelihood we are going on the discussed trip.
  • If a line between two points appears to be going up, it positively affects the average.
  • If a line between two points appears to be going down, it negatively affects the average & decreases our likelihood of going on the discussed trip. This rule played the biggest role in putting the LA trip probability trend for December on the chopping block!
  • Until reservations are made, depending on the content of future discussions between conception of a new idea & the possible first day of the trip, the maximum likelihood of us going is 33%. If the discussions are trendy or the content of them is relative to the idea of the trip, then the maximum likelihood climbs to 99 percent, while the average likelihood is a 50/50.

Other times we could be going to Los Angeles in the future

As of now, the probability of us going to LA in 2019 will stay at a total MAXIMUM of 10 percent until sometime around the middle of May 2019. Expect probabilities to be at maximum 33% at their highest from now until June 2019. You will get the trend graphs at random at anytime during all of 2018 & the first half of 2019.

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