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Reservations just made for AC: What to expect from now through 2/2

As of yesterday, December 8, at 7:00 PM, reservations for Atlantic City HAVE BEEN MADE. As of now there is a 99 percent probability that we will be going to Atlantic City at this point, from February 2nd to February 4. While I am excited to be staying at the Borgata hotel (the hotel we booked a suite for), I still cannot be too excited because, judging by numerous probability experiments conducted before now, they turned out to be real experiments. This is something I am trying to avoid this time by providing data-informed verdicts as opposed to final verdicts.

I am also excited for the possible future result of this trend because Atlantic City is a "Charlotte for the Rich", based off of their lifts & the Borgata has super EPIC fast (time-efficient) OTIS lifts.

How might it go?

I CANNOT be too concrete here, but here is what I could tell you right now if the probability of us going is 100 percent by January 28:
  • Judging by the July 20 trip to Atlantic City, I am anticipating a 9:00 PM arrival at the earliest to the Borgata on the evening of February 3rd. However, I do not expect to gain the ability to film any lifts until very, very late at night.
  • The comedy show at Harrah's is not until 8:00 PM on Saturday, February 3rd. If we are not doing anything during the day besides staying at the hotel & if I do have enough time to, I am hoping film as many hotel lifts as I possibly could WITH PERMISSION FROM THE STAFF FIRST!
  • We are not leaving the hotel until the morning of February 4. During that morning, I'd like to film as many of the lifts I could film that morning that I did not have the time to film the day before.
Remember, nothing mentioned above is concrete, even if the probability does jump up to 100 percent. The only thing we could do here is remain optimistic & pray for only the best results.

Explanation of the trend above

The numbers, labeled on the bottom, from 1 to 8 are the number of weeks after the reservation is made (which is today, December 9). Week 8 is the week of January 28 & a final verdict is coming on February 1st at 5:00 PM, via the FRIRND hashtag on Google+.

The numbers, labeled on the left, from 92 to 100 is the percent probability of us going to Atlantic City. Starting with week 1, which is now, there is a cool 99 percent chance that we are going to Atlantic City on February 2-4. Tracing back to the good old Fort Lauderdale probability trends, we see a large dip in likelihood to 93 percent between weeks 3 & 4. Week 4 is December 31st. Furthermore, the probability is forecasted to stay at 93 percent until January 21st, where it will rise back to 99 percent (at this point a new, updated version of the graph will be posted on the EleFilm blog). My dream is that during week 8, the probability of us going does not fall anywhere below 99 percent. However, that rarely ever happens when trips are reserved over 30 years earlier.

Verdict days

We will keep you posted with updates on the EleFilm blog every 2 Saturdays starting today. This means you will get the next statistically-informed verdict on December 23rd at 8:45 AM. The final statistically-informed verdict will be posted on January 27 at 8:45 AM & the REAL final verdict will be on #FRIRND by 5:00 PM on Thursday February 1st 2018. The following blog post will be up on the EleFilm blog by February 2nd 2018 at 4:15 PM.
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